The S&P Just Erased Its War Losses. Here's What That Means.
Yesterday was... something. The S&P 500 closed at 6,886 — its highest level since before the U.S.–Iran conflict began in late February. The Nasdaq had its longest win streak since 2021. Even the Dow is clawing back toward positive territory for the year.
And all of this happened while U.S.–Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed over the weekend. The naval blockade of Iranian ports entered its second day this morning. Oil is still near $97 a barrel. None of that — apparently — was enough to stop buyers from showing up.
Look, markets have a weird relationship with bad news. UBS ran the numbers on every major geopolitical shock since WWII: when the S&P drops 5–10% over a few weeks, it's typically back above the pre-conflict level within six months. Every single time. This pattern's held so far.
That said — what actually led the rally? Not the blue chips. Oracle surged over 9% at one point. Palantir jumped. Software and AI names did the heavy lifting. The companies most people weren't talking about a year ago.
That's the pattern that matters. By the time Oracle was a household name, the real move was already in the past. The same is true right now — the next decade's winners are probably sitting somewhere in the "too small, too weird, too early" pile.
The IPO market, by the way, is largely still frozen. Klarna and several others shelved their listings over tariff jitters and geopolitical uncertainty. Which means the companies that are going to matter in 5 years? They're still private. Still "unpopular." Still accessible — if you know where to look.
The FCC Is About to Change Mobile Forever
On April 30 — two weeks from now — the FCC votes on new rules that could dramatically reshape how satellites share radio spectrum. If it passes, Starlink gets to deploy more satellites faster, at higher power levels, potentially at lower cost to end users.
This isn't science fiction. Starlink already operates what it's rebranded as "Starlink Mobile" — a first-generation constellation of 650+ direct-to-cell satellites, now active across five continents and used by over 16 million people through carrier partnerships. Standard smartphones. No special hardware. It just works when you're out of range of a cell tower.
The next generation (V2) is the one everyone's watching. SpaceX announced it at Mobile World Congress last month: 20 times the throughput of current satellites, up to 150 Mbps per user, targeting full 5G-class experience from orbit. A rollout of roughly 1,200 satellites within six months of launch to achieve global coverage. That's the plan, anyway.
🖇 Starlink is preparing to launch "5G from space."
New satellites will allow millions of phones to connect directly from orbit — eliminating dead zones across the planet. One potential winner? Mode Mobile. You can still invest in Mode's pre‑IPO round while shares remain available.
The dead zone problem is real and it's been ignored for decades. Right now, roughly 20% of U.S. land area has zero terrestrial mobile coverage. 90% of Earth's surface is dark. Satellite connectivity doesn't replace cell towers — it fills the gaps. Rural America, backcountry, emergencies. That's not a niche problem.
The FCC vote on April 30 is the next key date. If the proposed spectrum-sharing rules pass, the economics shift for everyone in this space.
The Dollar's Down 10% in Six Months. That's Not an Accident.
Here's something that should be getting more attention: the U.S. dollar has lost over 10% of its value in just the past six months. The last time the dollar fell that fast early in a year was 1973 — right after Nixon fully severed the dollar from gold.
This isn't just market noise. The people closest to this administration have been very public about wanting a weaker dollar. Stephen Miran — who architected what's now being called the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," a framework for deliberate dollar devaluation — now sits inside the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell's term expires next month.
The logic of the plan: a weaker dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper globally, narrows the trade deficit, and — quietly — reduces the real burden of America's debt by paying it back in cheaper money. The playbook has worked before. The Plaza Accord in 1985 pulled it off with Germany and Japan. But that was a cooperative effort. This one feels more... unilateral.
A 10% dollar decline in six months isn't something you "wait out." It's a structural shift with direct consequences for savings, purchasing power, and anything priced in dollars. The people who treat this as background noise are the ones who'll be asking "what happened?" in two years.
🖇 In 1934, the government executed a legal maneuver that transferred billions in wealth overnight. Most Americans had no idea it was coming. A small group who saw it early walked away wealthy.
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Gold, for its part, is trading at $4,761 today — up 46% from a year ago, even after pulling back from its highs as ceasefire hopes briefly cooled safe-haven demand. J.P. Morgan is forecasting $5,055/oz by Q4 2026. Central banks worldwide are buying at twice their historical average pace. They're not doing that because they're optimistic about the dollar.
For your investments, the dollar story is the one that doesn't get enough airtime. A weakening dollar is a tailwind for gold, commodities, and non-dollar assets. It's a headwind for purchasing power and anything priced in dollars — including the real value of your savings account.
Whether the Mar-a-Lago Accord is a calculated strategy or just a side effect of tariff chaos is almost beside the point. The outcome — a weaker dollar — looks increasingly like a feature, not a bug. Position accordingly.
CLOSING THOUGHTS — WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Not financial advice, just straight talk.
🔗 First: The U.S. PPI data for March drops today at 8:30 a.m. ET. Given what's happening with oil prices and supply chain pressure from the Strait of Hormuz situation, this number could surprise. Inflation prints above expectations = rate cut expectations push further out = that's not great for stocks at current valuations.
🔗 Second: Watch the FCC calendar. The April 30 vote on satellite spectrum-sharing rules is quietly one of the most consequential regulatory decisions of the year for the telecom and connectivity space. If it passes, the satellite-to-mobile investment thesis gets a serious shot of adrenaline.
🔗 Third: Powell's Fed chair term expires next month. Whoever sits in that chair next shapes monetary policy — and potentially the pace and direction of dollar devaluation. Keep an eye on any nomination news. That's the wildcard for gold, rates, and the broader "1934 scenario" that more and more people in finance are starting to talk about openly.
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Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A+ Offering. Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur. The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period. Pro forma revenue and EBITDA, includes full year numbers of the businesses acquired throughout 2025.
